THIN DATA

What it means

THIN DATA means the market resolved to a real model, the model produced a number, and the confidence gate rejected it. That gate exists because a probability built on eight games is not the same object as one built on eighty, and presenting them identically would be dishonest. Common causes: an early-season team with almost no games, a player with a handful of logs, a newly promoted or international side, or a market only one book prices. The bet may well be good — we just can't say so with a straight face.

What to do with it

Don't act on this grade. It is shown so you know we looked.

This grade is not a rating. It is published so the board reflects the real slate rather than only the part the engine happens to cover — hiding it would make coverage look better than it is.

How it is produced

Every grade comes out of the same four-step sequence: sample the results behind the market, fit a model probability, strip the vig from cross-book consensus to find the fair price, and publish the gap. The full walkthrough, with numbers →

The size of that gap and the confidence behind it together decide which grade a bet receives.