Verdict grade
BAD
BADWhat it means
A BAD verdict means the price is materially worse than the model's fair number — the same size of gap that earns a GOOD, pointing the wrong way. These cluster in predictable places: heavy public favourites, popular overs in primetime games, and player props on well-known names. A BAD grade is not a recommendation to bet the other side automatically; the other side has its own grade, and after the vig it is often merely NEUTRAL.
What to do with it
Pass. If you want this game, the other side is where the value sits.
How it is produced
Every grade comes out of the same four-step sequence: sample the results behind the market, fit a model probability, strip the vig from cross-book consensus to find the fair price, and publish the gap. The full walkthrough, with numbers →
The size of that gap and the confidence behind it together decide which grade a bet receives.
The rest of the scale
Model probability clearly beats the best available price.
Positive edge, but modest — directional, not a hammer.
Market and model agree. No bet.
Slightly overpriced — the other side is closer to fair.
Not enough sample to trust the number. Informational only.
Displayed but not graded — no model covers this market yet.