WeBall
Confidence score
Also called confidence
Confidence measures the strength of the evidence behind a verdict, not the strength of the opinion. A model probability built on eighty games and one built on eight are different objects, and showing them identically would be dishonest.
Three things move it: how many relevant historical samples the engine found, how many sportsbooks are pricing the market (a market only one book offers has no consensus to de-vig against), and how consistent the underlying numbers are.
Below a threshold the grade is suppressed entirely and the bet is published as THIN DATA. Above it, confidence changes what you should do rather than only how the meter looks: a high-edge, low-confidence bet is a reason to look closer, not a reason to bet bigger.
Want the full version? Read the in-depth guide, with worked examples and the math.
See also
- Verdict — WeBall's grade for a single bet — how the model's probability compares to the best available price.
- Sample size — How many observations sit behind a number — and whether it means anything yet.