WeBall
Verdict
Also called grade
A verdict is the unit of output in WeBall. Every pregame selection on the board gets one, and it answers a single question: is this price better or worse than the outcome deserves?
The grade is produced mechanically. The engine samples the results behind the market, fits a probability, strips the vig out of cross-book consensus to find the market's fair number, and compares the two. The size of that gap and the confidence behind it decide which of seven grades the bet receives.
A verdict is not a prediction and not a recommendation. A GOOD bet loses regularly; that is what a probability under 100% means. It is a statement about price, not about outcome.
Want the full version? Read the in-depth guide, with worked examples and the math.
See also
- Edge — The gap between your estimated probability and the probability the price implies. Positive means value.
- Confidence score — How much data sits behind a grade — sample depth, book coverage and consistency, on a 0 to 1 scale.
- Model probability — WeBall's own estimate of how often a bet wins, before comparing it to any price.
- Fair probability — The market's honest opinion — implied probability with the bookmaker's margin removed.