No guarantees

This page exists so there is no ambiguity about what is being claimed.

What a grade is

A verdict is a statement about price: the model's probability compared against the market's de-vigged number, with a confidence score describing how much evidence sits behind it.

That is all it is. It is produced mechanically from historical results and current odds, and it is published with its own uncertainty attached.

What a grade is not

Not a prediction. A GOOD grade does not say the bet wins. It says the price is better than the outcome deserves. Those are different claims, and only the second one is being made.

Not advice. Nothing here recommends that you place any bet. Whether to bet at all, and how much, are decisions that depend on your finances and circumstances, about which this product knows nothing.

Not a guarantee. No outcome in sports betting is guaranteed. Every graded bet can lose, including every bet graded GOOD, and losing runs are a normal part of even a genuinely profitable process.

Not a track record. No historical performance claims are made anywhere in the product. The calibration ledger will publish the record — hits and misses — once enough graded bets have settled to make it meaningful. Until then there is nothing to claim.

Model limitations

The engine has documented weaknesses — thin samples early in a season, a known bias when removing vig from lopsided markets, and no variable at all for weather, game script or coaching behaviour in decided games.

These are listed in detail on known limitations rather than left for you to discover. A grade is a starting point for your own judgement, not a replacement for it.

Data accuracy

Odds and results come from third-party providers and sportsbook feeds. They can be delayed, incomplete or wrong. Always confirm the actual price and terms at your sportsbook before placing anything — the number shown here is what was available when the market was last read, and lines move.

Legal and eligibility

Sports betting is regulated differently in every jurisdiction and is illegal in some. You are responsible for knowing the law where you are. Nothing here is an inducement to bet where it is not permitted, and you must be 21 or older to bet legally in most US states.

If betting has stopped being a choice

Free confidential help is available 24 hours a day at 1-800-GAMBLER, by texting 800GAM, or at ncpgambling.org. See responsible gambling for warning signs and the tools available to limit or stop.