Odds and math
Sample size
How many observations sit behind a number — and whether it means anything yet.
A player's average over four games and their average over forty are not comparable quantities, even though both are printed as one number. Small samples swing wildly and regress hard toward the mean.
In betting this cuts two ways. Your own results need hundreds of bets before they distinguish skill from luck, and any model built on a thin history should be trusted proportionally less. WeBall's confidence score exists specifically to make that second point visible rather than hiding it behind a clean-looking probability.
See also
- Confidence score — How much data sits behind a grade — sample depth, book coverage and consistency, on a 0 to 1 scale.
- Variance — The spread of outcomes around your expected result — why good bettors have terrible months.
- Regression to the mean — The tendency of extreme performances to be followed by more ordinary ones.