Verdict grade
LEAN BAD
LEAN BADWhat it means
LEAN BAD is the mirror of LEAN GOOD: the price is modestly worse than the model thinks the outcome deserves. The useful move is usually to look at the other side of the same market, which by construction is the side carrying whatever edge exists. Note that both sides of a market can be LEAN BAD at once — that just means the book's hold is wide and neither side is worth paying for.
What to do with it
Pass, and check the opposite side.
How it is produced
Every grade comes out of the same four-step sequence: sample the results behind the market, fit a model probability, strip the vig from cross-book consensus to find the fair price, and publish the gap. The full walkthrough, with numbers →
The size of that gap and the confidence behind it together decide which grade a bet receives.
The rest of the scale
Model probability clearly beats the best available price.
Positive edge, but modest — directional, not a hammer.
Market and model agree. No bet.
Clearly overpriced against the model's number.
Not enough sample to trust the number. Informational only.
Displayed but not graded — no model covers this market yet.