Verdict grade
NEUTRAL
NEUTRALWhat it means
NEUTRAL means the model's number and the market's de-vigged number are close enough to be the same number. This is the most common verdict on the board, and it should be — efficient markets are efficient most of the time. A NEUTRAL bet is not a bad bet in the sense of being mispriced against you; it is a bet where you pay the hold and get nothing for it. Over time that is a guaranteed slow loss, which is why 'no opinion' is a result worth publishing rather than hiding.
What to do with it
Pass. You are paying the vig for no edge.
How it is produced
Every grade comes out of the same four-step sequence: sample the results behind the market, fit a model probability, strip the vig from cross-book consensus to find the fair price, and publish the gap. The full walkthrough, with numbers →
The size of that gap and the confidence behind it together decide which grade a bet receives.
The rest of the scale
Model probability clearly beats the best available price.
Positive edge, but modest — directional, not a hammer.
Slightly overpriced — the other side is closer to fair.
Clearly overpriced against the model's number.
Not enough sample to trust the number. Informational only.
Displayed but not graded — no model covers this market yet.