Verdict grade

LEAN GOOD

Positive edge, but modest — directional, not a hammer.

What it means

LEAN GOOD is a real but small edge. The model likes the price more than the market does, but not by enough that the gap comfortably clears the model's own error bars. Treat it as a tiebreaker rather than a signal on its own: if you were already considering the bet, this is a reason to take it; if you weren't, it is not a reason to start. Small edges are also the first thing to disappear when the line moves, so a LEAN GOOD at open is often a NEUTRAL by kickoff.

What to do with it

Playable at a reduced stake, or a reason to take this side if you were already leaning.

How it is produced

Every grade comes out of the same four-step sequence: sample the results behind the market, fit a model probability, strip the vig from cross-book consensus to find the fair price, and publish the gap. The full walkthrough, with numbers →

The size of that gap and the confidence behind it together decide which grade a bet receives.

The rest of the scale

GOOD

Model probability clearly beats the best available price.

NEUTRAL

Market and model agree. No bet.

LEAN BAD

Slightly overpriced — the other side is closer to fair.

BAD

Clearly overpriced against the model's number.

THIN DATA

Not enough sample to trust the number. Informational only.

UNRATED

Displayed but not graded — no model covers this market yet.