Strategy
Key numbers
The margins that occur far more often than others, mainly 3 and 7 in football.
Football scoring is lumpy — field goals and touchdowns mean certain margins recur constantly. Roughly one NFL game in seven finishes with a three-point margin, and around one in ten with a seven-point margin. No other number comes close.
This makes half points around those numbers disproportionately valuable. Moving a spread from −3.5 to −2.5 is worth several times more than moving from −5.5 to −4.5, and buying points is only ever worth considering when it crosses a key number.
Other sports have milder versions: hockey and soccer cluster around one goal, baseball around one run.
Want the full version? Read the in-depth guide, with worked examples and the math.
See also
- Hook — The half point attached to a line, as in −7.5 rather than −7.
- Push — A tie against the number — the bet is void and your stake is returned.
- Point spread — A margin handicap that makes an uneven matchup close to a coin flip.
- Teaser — A parlay where you move each spread or total in your favour in exchange for a shorter payout.