Strategy
Value bet
A bet whose price is better than the true probability of the outcome.
Value is not about likelihood. A 20% shot at +600 is a value bet; a 90% favourite at −2000 is not. The only question is whether the price overpays relative to how often the thing actually happens.
This is the hardest habit to build, because it requires being comfortable losing most of the bets you consider your best ones. Finding value means disagreeing with the market, which by definition feels wrong most of the time.
Want the full version? Read the in-depth guide, with worked examples and the math.
See also
- Edge — The gap between your estimated probability and the probability the price implies. Positive means value.
- Expected value — The average result of a bet per unit staked if it could be repeated indefinitely.
- Fair probability — The market's honest opinion — implied probability with the bookmaker's margin removed.