Strategy
Closing line value
Also called CLV
The closing line is the sharpest number a market ever produces. By kickoff it contains every injury report, every weather update and every dollar of informed money. Beating it consistently is the strongest available evidence that your process has an edge.
You measure it in probability terms: if you took a team at +150 and the line closed at +120, you bought a 40% chance for the price of a 45.5% chance. That gap is your CLV.
The reason it matters so much is speed of feedback. Results need thousands of bets before the noise settles; CLV tells you something meaningful after a few hundred. It is also the metric sportsbooks use to decide who to limit — consistently beating the close is what gets an account flagged.
Want the full version? Read the in-depth guide, with worked examples and the math.
See also
- Closing line — The final price on a market immediately before the event starts.
- Opening line — The first price a sportsbook posts on a market, before it takes meaningful action.
- Line shopping — Checking multiple sportsbooks for the same bet and taking the best available price.
- Steam — A fast, uniform line move across many sportsbooks at once, driven by heavy informed money.