Odds and math
Breakeven win rate
The percentage of bets you must win at a given price just to avoid losing money.
At −110, the standard price on spreads and totals, breakeven is 52.4%. At −105 it drops to 51.2%; at +100 it is exactly 50%.
This number reframes what a good record looks like. A bettor hitting 55% at −110 is doing extremely well; one hitting 51% is losing money while feeling like they are roughly even. It is also why price shopping matters so much — every point of breakeven you shave is pure profit.
Want the full version? Read the in-depth guide, with worked examples and the math.
See also
- Implied probability — The chance of an outcome as expressed by its odds, including the bookmaker's margin.
- Vig — The bookmaker's built-in margin — the reason both sides of a market add up to more than 100%.
- Line shopping — Checking multiple sportsbooks for the same bet and taking the best available price.
- Expected value — The average result of a bet per unit staked if it could be repeated indefinitely.